Historical contributions of CO2 emissions

Historical contributions of CO2 emissions vary substantially across regions in terms of total magnitude, 

but also in terms of contributions to CO2-FFI and net CO2 emissions from land use, land-use change and forestry 

(CO2-LULUCF). In 2019, around 35% of the global population live in countries emitting more than 9 tCO2-eq 

per capita11 (excluding CO2-LULUCF) while 41% live in countries emitting less than 3 tCO2-eq per capita; of 

the latter a substantial share lacks access to modern energy services. Least developed countries (LDCs) and 

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) have much lower per capita emissions (1.7 tCO2-eq and 4.6 tCO2-eq, 

respectively) than the global average (6.9 tCO2-eq), excluding CO2-LULUCF. The 10% of households with the 

highest per capita emissions contribute 34–45% of global consumption-based household GHG emissions, while 

the bottom 50% contribute 13–15%. (high confidence) {2.1.1, Figure 2.2

These statistics show the stark contrast between the historical and current responsibility for climate change among different regions and groups of people. But how did we get here? How have CO2 emissions evolved over time and what factors have driven this change?

In this blog post, we will explore the history of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and land use change, which are the main sources of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions. We will look at how different regions and countries have contributed to the global total, and how their emissions per person compare.

The history of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel combustion were almost zero prior to 1750. The United Kingdom was the world’s first industrialized nation – and first fossil-fuel CO2 emitter. In 1751 its (and global) emissions were less than 10 million tonnes – 3600 times less than global emissions today.

Since then, global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels have grown exponentially, reaching over 34 billion tonnes in 2019. This growth was driven by the rapid expansion of coal, oil and gas use for energy production, transportation, industry and other sectors.

The United States has emitted more CO2 than any other country to date: at around 400 billion tonnes since 1751, it is responsible for 25% of historical emissions; this is twice more than China – the world’s second largest national contributor. The 28 countries of the European Union (EU-28) – which are grouped together here as they typically negotiate and set targets on a collaborative basis – is also a large historical contributor at 22%.

Many of the large annual emitters today – such as India and Brazil – are not large contributors in a historical context; Africa’s regional contribution – relative to its population size – has been very small. This is the result of very low per capita emissions – both historically and currently.

The history of CO2 emissions from land use change

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from land use change are the result of human activities that alter the natural balance of carbon stored in vegetation, soils and biomass. The main sources of CO2 emissions from land use change are deforestation, forest degradation, peatland drainage and fires.

Estimating CO2 emissions from land use change is challenging, as it requires accounting for both the carbon lost from clearing or degrading natural ecosystems and the carbon gained from regrowing or restoring them. There are large uncertainties in the data, especially for earlier periods.

According to one estimate, global CO2 emissions from land use change were around 6 billion tonnes in 2019, accounting for about 15% of total CO2 emissions. However, this share has declined over time, as fossil fuel emissions have grown much faster than land use emissions.

Historically, most CO2 emissions from land use change occurred in temperate regions, where forests were cleared for agriculture and settlement by European colonizers. Since the mid-20th century, however, tropical regions have become the main source of land use emissions, as deforestation accelerated in countries such as Brazil, Indonesia and Nigeria.

The historical contributions of different regions and countries to CO2 emissions from land use change are very different from those of fossil fuel emissions. For example, Brazil has emitted more CO2 from land use change than any other country since 1750, followed by Indonesia and the United States

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